White House Watch: Trump 43%, Clinton 42% – Rasmussen Poll
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Hillary Clinton has rebounded into a virtual tie with Donald Trump in Rasmussen Reports’ latest White House Watch survey.
Our weekly national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Trump with 43% support, while Clinton earns 42%. Eleven percent (11%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
This is the fourth week in a row that Trump has been statistically ahead. A week ago, he earned his highest level of support to date, leading Clinton 44% to 37%. The latest survey was taken Monday and Tuesday evenings, so it’s too early to say whether Trump will receive any bump from his nomination this week at the Republican National Convention.
It’s also worth noting that the number of voters who prefer some other candidate continues to fall from a high of 22% last December. Given the unpopularity of Clinton and Trump, speculation has run high that a third-party candidate could win enough votes to decide the election, but historically support for such candidates usually melts away as Election Day approaches.
Trump has the backing of 78% of Republicans and a slight 38% to 35% lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton earns 76% support among Democrats. The GOP nominee now picks up 16% of the Democratic vote, while 10% of Republicans like Clinton.
Republicans and unaffiliated voters tend to see Trump’s lifetime of business experience as good training for the White House. Most Democrats do not.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on July 18-19, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Voters insist that vice presidential nominees are important to their vote, but most say Trump’s choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence as a running mate will not affect how they vote in the fall.
Trump is ahead by 13 points among men, while Clinton posts a 10-point lead among women.
Clinton runs strongest among those under 40, but voters in this age group are also far more likely than their elders to prefer some other candidate.
The likely Democratic nominee continues to maintain an overwhelming lead among blacks and is slightly ahead among other minority voters. Trump has a double-digit advantage among whites.
Trump is the choice of 70% of conservatives. Eighty percent (80%) of liberals and moderates by a 45% to 33% margin favor Clinton.
Voters tend to think House Speaker Paul Ryan is just making a political move with his call to block Clinton from receiving intelligence briefings following the FBI’s conclusion that she was “extremely careless” with classified information during her time as secretary of State. But voters trust Trump more than Clinton when it comes to handling the nation’s secrets.
Sixty percent (60%) of voters now think race relations are worse since President Obama’s electioneight years ago.
Voters say they are more likely to watch some of this week’s Republican National Convention than next week’s Democratic National Convention.