Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had lost serious ground to her GOP rival, Donald Trump, in three major swing states following a hit to her ratings on moral standards and honesty, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey, but pollsters said there appears to be no “definite link” between the drop in honesty points and the U.S. Justice Department’s decision not to prosecute her over her use of a private email server while secretary of state.
According to the new poll, released early Wednesday morning, Clinton and trump are in a dead heat in Ohio, while Trump leads her in Florida and Pennsylvania in numbers that show a definite drop since the last poll on June 21:
Florida: Trump 42-39 percent, compared to 47-39 percent for Clinton on June 21;
Ohio: Clinton 41 – Trump 41, compared to a 40-40 percent tie on June 21;
Pennsylvania: Trump 43-41 percent, compared to Clinton, 42-41 percent on June 21.
The poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, because no candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without winning at least two of the three states.
When third-party candidates added in, Trump continued to hold a lead in all three states:
Florida: Trump over Clinton 41-36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein;
Ohio: Trump, 37-36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent;
Pennsylvania: Trump, 40 – 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein.
“While there is no definite link between Clinton’s drop in Florida and the U.S. Justice Department decision not to prosecute her for her handling of e-mails, she has lost ground to Trump on questions which measure moral standards and honesty,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
In state breakdowns:
Men: Trump, 50-29 percent;
Women: Clinton 48 – 36 percent, compared to 52 – 34 percent in June;
Independents: Trump, 44-35 percent; compared to 44 – 35 percent for Clinton in June;
Republicans: Trump, 82 – 6 percent;
Democrats, Clinton, 87 – 4 percent;
White voters: Trump, 54 – 30 percent;
Non-white voters, Clinton 56 – 21 percent.
Favorability ratings: Trump, 38-54 percent; Clinton, 35-59 percent;
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And in a comparison of other traits:
53 – 37 percent, Clinton is better prepared to be president;
42 – 42 percent tie on who has higher moral standards, wiping out a 47 – 36 percent Clinton lead on this measure June 21;
52 – 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
50 – 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy, up from 43 – 40 percent.
54 – 39 percent that Trump would be better creating jobs;
49 – 45 percent that he would do better on immigration;
57 – 35 percent that Trump would be more effective against ISIS.
Men: Trump 47 – 33 percent;
Women: Clinton 48 – 35 percent.;
White voters: Trump, 46 – 35 percent;
Non-white voters: Clinton, 69 – 15 percent;
Republicans: 77 – 6 percent, Trump;
Independents: 43 – 31 percent, Trump;
Democrats: Clinton, 90-4 percent.
Favorability ratings: Clinton, 35 – 60 percent; Trump, 34 – 59 percent.
Comparing other traits, voters say:
57 – 34 percent that Clinton is better prepared to be president;
43-42 percent, Clinton has higher moral standards;
52 – 35 percent that Clinton is more intelligent;
47 – 37 percent that Trump is more honest and trustworthy.
Better creating jobs, Trump, 54 – 39 percent;
Immigration ,Clinton, 48-45;
More effective against ISIS: Trump, 51-40 percent;
Responding to an international crisis: Clinton, 50-43 percent.
Men: Trump;, 48-37 percent;
Women: Clinton, 43 – 39 percent;
White voters: Trump, 51-33 percent;
Non-white voters: Clinton, 72-12 percent;
Republicans, Trump, 82-5 percent;
Democrats: Clinton, 82-9 percent;
Independent voters: Trump, 39-36 percent.
Favorability ratings: Clinton, 31-65 percent; Trump, 38-57 percent.
In other traits:
56 – 36 percent, Clinton is better prepared to be president;
43-41 percent, Clinton has higher moral standards;
51 – 37 percent, Clinton is more intelligent;
49 – 34 percent, Trump is more honest and trustworthy;
Better creating jobs, Trump, 54-39 percent;
Immigration, Trump, 49-47 percent;
More effective against ISIS, Trump, 52 – 40 percent;
Responding to an international crisis, Clinton, 52 – 43 percent.
For the poll,conducted between June 30-July 11, Quinnipiac surveyed 1,015 Florida voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points; 955 Ohio voters with a margin of error of 3.2 points; 982 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
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